Monday, August 31, 2009

Draft Results and some more football ramblings

First things first. How the draft went.

**If you want to read about the Chiefs and Royals, skip to the end. That way you miss the nonsensical ramblings about fantasy football.**

Well, let me give you some background first. 12 team league. 5 points for QB TD's, everything else is standard scoring. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF/ST with 6 Bench spots. Yahoo service because I could just renew the league from last year (they offer free live scoring this year though), so we get randomized 30 minutes prior to the draft for position. I get 11th.

In discussions with Mark, my crazy accountant brother, he and I decided that in a 12 team league, the first 2 picks for everyone are about even. The first 25 picks of the draft are pretty even. Then there is some drop off. So I couldn't do too bad to start. What I didn't realize is that there is a pretty big drop off at about pick 30. All the running backs in the second tier that I liked were gone before I got a third pick. I will narrate more as the list continues.

Round 1: Steve Slaton
I was picking one of the Houston studs (Slaton or Andre Johnson) and I had to be sure to grab what I thought was an elite RB, so I took Slaton. I didn't wanted pick 12 or 13 to be him. I could settle for one of the 3 WR's still on the board (Moss, Johson and Calvin Johnson)

Round 2: Calvin Johnson
Moss and Andre went with 12 and 13. Made this pick pretty simple.

Round 3: Marques Colston
All the QB's I liked (top 7) went before I could pick here. Also, there were a ton of RB's off the board, so I knew that I could wait for my next set of picks to get my number 2.

Round 4: Tony Gonzalez
All the QB's are gone. I knew I could wait for a RB. I had 2 WR. So I took an impact TE. They would be gone by the next time I picked (the next 4 TE's went in round 4) and I knew I could wait on an RB. QB's I could have drafted here: Big Ben, Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub. I decided against it.

Round 5: Jonathon Stewart
How many RB's went between the second pick in Round 4 and 11th in Round 5. One. It was Kevin Smith. Good gamble by taking a TE.

Round 6: Darren McFadden
Good running back depth now for the team. DMac may start. I could still have taken Cutler, which may have been a mistake not to, but I like my RB trio.

Round 7: New York Jets
Not a sexy pick at all. I could have waited again for this, but there were 10 defenses off the board already and I decided this was the best one left and took it. It could have waited 3 picks cause the guy after me took the Vikings, but I knew I wanted this and took it.

Round 8: Matt Hasselbeck
Time for a QB. Good value pick I think, could be a very servicable QB in a relativley weak division. Now I have a full lineup (other than a Kicker, which is not what I really need until late) and can work on some depth.

Round 9: Kevin Walter
Like it a lot!

Round 10: Ahmad Bradshaw
Totally great here. If Brandon Jacobs gets hurt, this guy comes in and scores 15+ a week.

Round 11: Donald Brown
Drafting for upside here. Again the injury deal. If Joseph Addai gets hurt, Brown is the guy and does well in a Colts high powered offense.

Round 12: Joe Flacco
This was the mistake of the draft. I wanted a good backup QB for Hasselbeck, but I didnt realize they have the same bye week. I will definitely have to shop this pick. Ugh.

Round 13: Nate Kaeding
I know I know. A kicker before the last round. But I wanted Kaeding. So there.

Round 14: Nate Burleson
QB to WR hookup will be great on my #1 and #2 bye weeks. Burleson will get a lot of looks with TJ Housh on the other side drawing a lot of attention.

So my full lineup to start

QB: Matt Hasselbeck
RB: Steve Slaton
RB: Jonathon Stewart or Darren McFadden
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Marques Colston
TE: Tony G
K: Nate Kaeding

Bench: JS or D-Mac, Kevin Walter, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown, Joe Flacco, Nate Burleson.

Overall, I am happy with this. I have my doubts at QB, but am excited at the possibility. I have studs at WR and TE as well as a great RB in Slaton.

I dont really think there is a favorite in the league, because everyone has a question mark somewhere.

I do like Mrs. DDSF's team too:
Jay Cutler
Adrian Peterson (yes, she got the first pick)
Marion Barber III
Roddy White
Chad 85
Owen Daniels
Jason Elam
San Deigo

Now a couple other things before I close for the day.

Grienke just pitched a one hitter in Seattle, helping his case for the Cy Young. He now leads the majors with 6 complete games, 3 shutouts and is tops in the AL with a 2.32 ERA. He has 13 wins to go with 8 losses, but has atleast 3 no decisions when giving up 1 run or less. If there will be an injustice in postseason awards, it will be for the AL Cy Young. Grienke should win it, but because he has so few losses, he probably won't. He has dominated this year, even though he is on the worst team in the AL. This comes after a 15 strikeout performance earlier in the week against the Indians. That's a franchise record for you folks scoring at home.

More on the Royals later this week.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have equaled the Royals in awfulnessocity. They just lost their "franchise" QB in Matt Cassel for 2-4 weeks with no defined backup. Todd Haley must be pulling his hair out trying to figure out this one because the offensive line is so terrible. Tyler Thigpen can move more than any QB, but Brodie Croyle is the better pocket passer (as brittle as he is) and would fit better for Haley's system. If Croyle will start (which I think he will), look for him to get hurt in 3 quarters or less.

On another offensive offensive note, the Chiefs have relieved Chan Gailey of his duties as offensive coordinator. I can't imagine why.

He has not lasted in the league with any team or coaching position for more than 2 years (Cowboys Head Coach in 98-99). He went to Georgia Tech from 2002-2007 where he coached Calvin Johnson to an incredible year, though never finished in the Top 25 or beat rival Georgia. And, he led one of the worst offenses in football last year to a pathetic 4-12 record. And he had a stud Wide out (he was a former wide reciever coach with the Steelers) and the games best Tight End.

He was hired under Herm Edwards, who is a run first, defense first coach, and didn't fit in. Why would his plan work under a pass first offense first coach? It wouldn't. I think after the awful preseason (and completey pathetic offensive line play, especially the first team), Haley realized he could not work with this guy. I like the move simply because the Chiefs really needed a fresh start from the old regime.

I just wish it would have come sooner. And we could have had some young hot shot take the reigns and be creative.

Until next time,


Saturday, August 29, 2009

Football part 2

So now that you have insight into my head about running backs and wide recievers, let me introduce you to my QB, TE, Def and K rankings/sleepers.

This could potentially be the highest scoring player on your team. Two years ago Tom Brady racked up 378 points during his 50 TD season outscoring Tony Romo's second place effort of 283.

So, who do I think is going to be that consistent force destroying all of your opponents?

1 a. Drew Brees
1 b. Tom Brady
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Peyton Manning
5. Tony Romo
6. Phillip Rivers
7. Kurt Warner
8. Donovan McNabb

I know... a cop out on the first pick. Do you want someone with the potential to throw 50 Td's (Brady) but could also be awful or hurt, or someone who has thrown for over 4400 yards the last 3 seasons with at least 26 TD's? Either one is perfect.

Moving down the list, Green Bay will be great and Rodgers will only improve on last year's (4038 yards and 28 TD tosses and 4 TD runs) numbers. Peyton down just a bit because of Rodgers, and Romo will have a bounce back year after breaking up with Jessica "Chicken of the Sea" Simpson.

Warner is ranked higher, but I think is too much of an injury risk and McNabb was originally higher on my list, but Michael Vick's presence will take some points away.

Sleepers (or just guys you can get later and still get good points from)
Matt Schaub
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Hasselbeck
Joe Flacco
David Garrard

If you don't get one of those top guys on the list, try to get a couple sleepers. Schaub and Jay Cutler in the Top 10 on most preseason lists, so not really sleepers, but the reason Schaub is here is because he has Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and (if healthy) the potential to be a Top 5 QB.
In 2007, Big Ben had 32 TD's.
Garrard was a Top 10 QB last year and has waaaaaay better recievers (meaning they are not doing drugs this year).
Hasselbeck is on a Seattle team that is going to be good (see 9-7 competing for the division).
Flacco threw for about 3000 yards and 14 td's on a run first team as a rookie.

This will go quick. Get one of the Top 4, and you are already a favorite to make the playoffs in your fantasy league (unless you are a complete idiot).

1. Tony Gonzalez
2. Jason Witten
3. Antonio Gates
4. Dallas Clark (with less proven Wide Outs, he will play a bigger role in the passing game if healthy)

The other guys
5. Chris Cooley (lots of looks, catches and yards last year, but not many TD's)
6. Owen Daniels (again, if Schaub is healthy all year, he sky rockets)
7. John Carlson (awesome as a rookie and Apple Juice Seneca Wallace as his QB)
8. Greg Olsen (He is with Culter, who like Tony Scheffleer in Denver, but is better than Scheff)
9. Zach Miller (Jamarcus Russell's only target with reliable hands)
10. Visanthe Shiancoe (Remember when Bubba Franks was good with Favre? This guy is better than Bubba and Minnesota likes to throw it in the red zone)
11. Anthony Fasano (Had 7 TD's for the 'Fins last year. Who knew?)

If you want to reach, reach on these guys
Kellen Winslow (He is playing in TB, one of the worst teams this year)
Heath Miller (Only a year removed from 566 yards and 7 TD's)
Brandon Pettigrew - Rookie for Detroit (Culpepper and Stafford can't throw to Calvin Johnson on every play.... or can they?)


Here is the deal. I will rank these guys the way I want them, but if you draft a kicker before the last round you are an idiot. Period. The difference between first and 10th place (10th!) is 24 points over the last 2 years. That is 1.5 points per week in a 16 week season. You can find that much value at another position earlier.

That said, I am only going to put 10 names down and you will have to rank them. Because I don't care about kickers that much!

David Akers
Lawrence Tynes
Jason Elam
Stephen Gostkowski
Mason Crosby
Ryan Longwell
Rob Bironas
Nate Kaeding
Whoever is kicking for New Orleans that week (Garret Hartley got suspended 4 games)
Kris Brown
Neil Rackers
Nick Folk
Robbie Gould

And that is how much I care about kickers. I did more than 10 to confuse you!





Defense/Special Teams

These guys are a little harder to predict, but they are a better bet than the kickers. It also depends upon your leagues scoring system. I am in a league where yardage matters, so it is even more important to get a stud D.

1. Pittsburgh
2. New York Giants
3. San Diego (They play the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders a total of 6 times!)
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. New York Jets
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Chicago Bears
8. Tennessee Titans
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Washington Redskins

Some other teams that might be worth it.
Houston Texans (probably better as a matchup pick, but have some good young talent)
San Fransisco (Mike Singletary = Defense. Maybe they should move Vernon Davis to Linebacker)
Oakland Raiders (They have a great secondary and play in the AFC West)
Green Bay (Their corners take chances, which is bad for points against, but great when they score TD's)
Seattle Seahawks (a team on the rise)

Now that you have seen everything that I am thinking, give me feedback and comments. And I will give frequent (although completely unimportant updates) on the fantasy season all year long.

Peace and I will let you know how tomorrow's draft goes.


PS. Mark (my brother) would not let me put his sleeper WR on this blog, so I didn't. But I wanted to. So I will after the draft.

Thursday, August 27, 2009


Before I fully get into the nitty gritty of my join for the start of football season (college, pro and fantasy) I have to preface this by saying I will still catch you up on the Royals. I have lately come in to possession of some crazy stats that I have to share with you. However, being as I have a draft for fantasy football this weekend, I thought I would do a quick rundown on some of my personal player rankings and also try to give you some sleepers.

So here goes.

I am going to do some rankings by position because not all leagues are built the same. With a QB getting 6 points I would take one of my Top 2 QB's, but in most other leagues I would lead off with a RB/WR depending upon location in the draft order. There are only a few WR's that I feel like you need and there is a TON of running back depth in this draft.

Hopefully, someone will learn something from this post.

Running Backs:
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Matt Forte
3. Michael Turner
4. DeAngelo Williams
5. LaDainian Tomlinson
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. Steve Slaton
8. Brandon Jacobs
9. Chris Johnson
10. Steven Jackson

Some notes before I move on. Basically, those Top 5 backs will all be freakin awesome. There is some question with MJD because he hasn't had that workload and the Jaguars may be terrible and have to pass the ball alot. All of these guys are going to produce this year. All of them. If you pick one, you will not go wrong.

11. Brian Westbrook
12. Clinton Portis
13. Pierre Thomas
14. Frank Gore
15. Ryan Grant
16. Marion Barber III
17. Thomas Jones
18. Kevin Smith
19. Marshawn Lynch
20. Jonathan Stewart

These are guys who start and are potentially awesome. Westbrook has had atleast 11 TD's in the last 3 years and is 11th. Portis had over 1500 total yards the last 2 seasons, including 1487 rushing last year. Thomas Jones has averaged 1094 yards and 8 TD's in the last 3 years and is 17th! Talk about depth.

Other people I like:
Felix Jones
Willie Parker
LenDale White (can you say Touchdowns?)
Ray Rice (he catches and runs)
Darren McFadden
Derrick Ward (just barely... I have no idea what he is going to produce on a terrible team)

Running Back Sleepers
-Leon Washington (he will be a good 3rd running back with about 900 total yards and 7 TD's)
-Ahmad Bradshaw (Derrick Ward had over 1000 yards last year as Brandon Jacobs backup and he is gone. Enter the Bradshaw)
-Cedric Benson (He starts and there is no one else. He could easily get to 1000 yards and 8 TD)
- Fred Jackson (He will start the first 3 weeks of the season for Buffalo with Lynch suspended and is good. And Lynch might get hurt.)
- Peyton Hillis (He was GREAT before he got hurt last year)
- Greg Jones (MJD's backup and would steal some goal line carries)

Wide Recievers
1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Andre Johnson
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Randy Moss
5. Greg Jennings
6. Anquan Boldin
7. Marques Colston
8. Roddy White
9. Reggie Wayne
10. Steve Smith

That is my list of WR's that you MUST have in order to succeed in your league. Too many guys are so inconsistent, but these guys will produce (assuming good health). The order after 6 is just whatever to me. Take one, take another, no big deal.

Other guys I like:
- Wes Welker
- Dwayne Bowe (could reach new levels, but the Chiefs line is so bad that he won't be in the upper eschelon this year)
- TO will be ok. Just OK.
- Desean Jackson
- OchoCinco
- Steve Breaston
- Donald Driver
- Lance Moore (if any other NO reciever has a huge game, pick them up immediately and hope they keep producing)
- TJ Housh (new place, he's the #1, and the Seahawks could be great)
- Kevin Walter
- Josh Morgan (SF's only good option)

Sleepers (just a couple)
- Limas Sweed (Nate Washington's numbers from last year)
- James Jones (GB is good)
- Earl Bennett (Jay Cutler's favorite target from Vanderbilt, now on the same Pro team)

So.... I have to go to work now, but will definitly get the rest of my picks later. It may be Saturday, but I will get to them. Promise.